Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3821 · MIA → TLH
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TLH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TLH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.