Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3821 · MIA → TLH
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.