Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.