Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT

departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?