Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Fri 10/2 53%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.