Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
85%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
85%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
25%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 85% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
85%
Yes 85%
No 15%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
25%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.