Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4120 · MLU → DFW
departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 7:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MLU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MLU that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MLU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.60 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.