Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5222 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5222 · DCA → IAH

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.46 in

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5222 · DCA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?