Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5229 · ILM → DCA

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.10 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5229 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?