Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5258 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5258 · CLT → LEX

departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at LEX that day

↓ LEX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip1.24 in

LEX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5258 · CLT → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?