Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5646 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5646 · MKE → DCA

departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5646 · MKE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?