Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3734
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 3734 · AUS → TPA
departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±7 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.