Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1869 · IAD → SAT

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.31 in

SAT (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1869 · IAD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?