UA 200 · GUM → HNL

took off 7:15 AM ChST · landed 6:03 PM HT (scheduled 7:05 AM ChST → 6:15 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 7am departures from GUM are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.24 in

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?