UA 200 · GUM → HNL

took off 7:14 AM ChST · expected to land 6:15 PM HT (scheduled 7:05 AM ChST → 6:15 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 7am departures from GUM are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.33 in

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?