Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

departs 7:05 AM ChST · arrives 6:15 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 1.3 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 7am departures from GUM are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.35 in

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,933 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?