Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 586 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 586 · DEN → MCI

departs 1:40 PM MT · arrives 4:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 586 · DEN → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?