Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3442
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3442 · CLT → ORD
departs 1:06 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
1pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.