Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4495 · BNA → DCA
departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.42 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.