Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
YX 4495 · BNA → DCA
departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±6 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to DCA?
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On time or early
60%
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15–30 min late
19%
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30 min–1 hour late
6%
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1–2 hours late
7%
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Over 2 hours late
6%
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Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.