Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4495 · BNA → DCA
departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.