Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4514 · DCA → GSO
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 2:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at GSO that day
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
GSO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.