Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4514 · DCA → GSO
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.