Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5707
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5707 · DCA → BNA
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.