Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5717 · LGA → DCA
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 62%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 27%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.