AA 1299 · DCA → MIA

took off 4:24 PM ET · expected to land 6:31 PM ET (scheduled 3:31 PM ET → 6:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1299 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?