UA 174 · GUM → SPN

took off 8:08 AM ChST · landed 8:24 AM ChST (scheduled 8:05 AM ChST → 8:50 AM ChST)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 25h after departure

Arrive at SPN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SPN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at SPN that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into SPN at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from GUM are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

SPN (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 174 · GUM → SPN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SPN?