Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

UA 174 · GUM → SPN

departs 8:05 AM ChST · arrives 8:50 AM ChST

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SPN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SPN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SPN

↓ 8am departures from GUM are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into SPN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip1.40 in

SPN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 174 · GUM → SPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SPN?