YX 4647 · DCA → BUF

departs 9:49 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4647 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?