Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5636 · LGA → SDF
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 27%
Thu 10/8 28%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.