tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5636 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 5636 · LGA → SDF

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 122h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
27% chance · ±23 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.8d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SDF?

  1. On time or early
    71%
  2. 15–30 min late
    9%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    0%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    12%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    5%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.