Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5636 · LGA → SDF
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.