Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5636 · LGA → SDF
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 27%
Thu 10/8 28%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.