Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 1621 · DCA → MCO
departs 3:22 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 20%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.