Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 157 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 6 Today

TK 157 · IST → MIA

departs 12:04 PM +03 · arrives 4:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IST

Weather at each end

IST (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TK 157 · IST → MIA

Odds over time