Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CARIBBEAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT BW 483
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
BW 483 · MIA → POS
departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM AST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 27%
Sun 10/11 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at POS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to POS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at POS
↓
Arrivals into POS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
POS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.