Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3518 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:45 PM ET, ETA 6:20 AM CEST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 8 Today

ET 3518 · MIA → LGG

took off 4:45 PM ET · expected to land 6:20 AM CEST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGG

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3518 · MIA → LGG

Odds over time