Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM
departs 1:58 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 10%
Sun 10/11 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into MLM at that hour are usually not late
↓
MLM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.