MQ 3498 · EIS → MIA

departs 5:10 PM AST · arrives 8:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EIS

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ 5pm departures from EIS are usually not late

Weather at each end

EIS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3498 · EIS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?