Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12
MQ 3498 · EIS → MIA
departs 3:53 PM AST · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
3pm departures from EIS are usually not late
Weather at each end
EIS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.