Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4832
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 10 Tomorrow
OO 4832 · ORD → SHD
departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/10
Sun 10/11 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SHD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SHD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SHD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SHD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SHD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
SHD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SHD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.