Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4832
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11
OO 4832 · ORD → SHD
departs 5:57 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/10 30%
Sun 10/11
Odds over time
Arrive at SHD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SHD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SHD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SHD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SHD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
SHD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SHD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.