AA 1221 · CLT → JFK

departs 12:33 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET

Your aircraft is N316PF (B738), coming in as AA 411 from ORD: in the air, landing about 11:03 AM ET, 78 min before departure.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 12pm departures from CLT are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.57 in

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1221 · CLT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?