Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1221 · CLT → JFK

departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1221 · CLT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?