Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 33 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

AV 33 · MIA → MDE

departs 6:43 AM ET · arrives 9:04 AM -05

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MDE more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDE?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MIA are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.85 in

MDE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 33 · MIA → MDE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDE?