Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 3 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow

AV 3 · MIA → BAQ

departs 1:24 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM -05

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BAQ more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BAQ?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BAQ

↓ Arrivals into BAQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BAQ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 3 · MIA → BAQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to BAQ?