C5 4230 · AVP → IAD

took off 3:49 PM ET · expected to land 4:26 PM ET (scheduled 3:17 PM ET → 4:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at AVP that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVP (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.00 in

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4230 · AVP → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?