C5 4250 · IAD → SYR

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SYR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SYR that day

↓ SYR usually runs smoothly

↓ C5's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

SYR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4250 · IAD → SYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYR?