Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4250 · IAD → SYR
departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SYR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.