Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
C5 4250 · IAD → SYR
departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
SYR (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.